IMF CUTS NIGERIA'S GROWTH FORECAST TO 4.1%: Warns Against Subsidies as Cost-of-Living Rises

Refinery to List on Multiple African Exchanges

Washington D.C. Spring Meetings: Fund tells Abuja to target support, protect reform gains

The International Monetary Fund has lowered Nigeria's 2026 economic growth forecast to 4.1%, down from its January projection of 4.4%, attributing the revision to the cost pressures unleashed by the Middle East war.

The revision reflects higher fuel and fertiliser prices, rising shipping costs, and tighter financial conditions globally, all weighing on Nigeria's non-oil economic activity, even as higher crude prices provide a partial offset.

At a briefing in Washington, the IMF's Abebe Aemro Selassie said Nigeria must deploy targeted, time-bound support for vulnerable populations rather than broad subsidies, warning that poorly targeted measures could weaken already constrained public finances without effectively protecting those most in need.

Nigeria's Finance Minister, Wale Edun, leading the government delegation, said the war shock comes at a critical time for Nigeria's reform programme. He disclosed that Bonny Light crude prices have surged from approximately $70–73 to over $110–120 per barrel since the conflict began in March, adding fiscal revenue but fuelling domestic inflation.

The IMF also cut its global growth forecast to 3.1% for 2026. Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to expand 4.3%, placing Nigeria slightly below the regional average.

For Nigerian businesses, the Fund's explicit guidance against fuel subsidies is a policy signal: market-priced fuel is here to stay.