PETROL COULD FALL TO ₦900/LITRE AS US AND IRAN SIGN PEACE DEAL, HORMUZ SET TO REOPEN

Brent drops below $83 after ceasefire confirmed Sunday; Dangote cautions on timing due to existing crude stocks

Petrol prices in Nigeria could drop to as low as ₦900 per litre in the coming days following the signing of a peace agreement between the United States and Iran on Sunday, which triggered a sharp decline in global crude oil prices and set in motion plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude futures fell 4.8% to $83.10 per barrel as markets reacted to the US-Iran deal, which includes a memorandum of understanding to be formally signed in Switzerland, with US President Donald Trump stating the Strait of Hormuz would be open "toll free" and that a naval blockade of Iranian ports would also end.

PETROAN's Publicity Secretary, Joseph Obele, said Nigeria should expect a significant reduction in petrol prices if current developments are sustained. "If the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, Nigerians should expect a very significant reduction in petrol prices. Petrol will fall below ₦1,000, probably to ₦900/litre. Don't forget that the product was ₦800+ before the Middle East crisis. Now that the war is getting over, we should be expecting a return to that price regime," he said.

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has already slashed its gantry price by ₦75 per litre ahead of the deal's confirmation. However, a refinery official cautioned that the facility still has expensive crude purchased at higher prices in its tanks, meaning major price reductions are feasible but not immediate.

The price decline will pass through to retail stations gradually as marketers clear older high-priced stock. Financial analyst Osas Igho noted: "Right now, marketers are trying to dispose the feedstocks they purchased at high prices when oil sold above $90 per barrel. So, any major price reduction is feasible but not immediate."

For Nigerian SMEs, the trajectory is clear: fuel costs, the single largest operational expense for most businesses in 2026, are heading decisively lower. Logistics operators, manufacturers, and service businesses with significant generator dependence should begin modelling their cost structures at a ₦900–₦1,000 per litre scenario.