TWO PMI REPORTS, TWO VERDICTS: NIGERIA'S PRIVATE SECTOR EXPANDS AND CONTRACTS IN APRIL

Philip
2 days ago
2 min read

DANGOTE PLANS AFRICA'S BIGGEST-EVER IPO: Refinery to List on Multiple African Exchanges — *Stanbic IBTC shows growth at 52.4; CBN PMI registers first contraction in 16 months at 49.4*

Two closely watched surveys of Nigeria's private sector economy published this week have reached opposite conclusions about business conditions in April 2026, creating an unusually divided picture of the economy entering the second quarter.

The Stanbic IBTC Bank and S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index, endorsed by the National Bureau of Statistics, showed the headline index rising to 52.4 in April from 51.9 in March, the third consecutive month above the 50-point threshold that signals an improvement in business conditions. The report noted that customer numbers and market demand continued to strengthen.

In direct contrast, the Central Bank of Nigeria's own PMI registered 49.4 in April, below the 50-point expansion line, marking the first contraction in Nigerian economic activity after 16 consecutive months of expansion. The CBN report attributed the deterioration to heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which disrupted supply chains and weighed on business confidence.

Both reports agreed on one thing: fuel costs are driving prices higher. Firms raised selling prices to the highest level in 16 months, the fastest output price inflation since December 2024, as they passed elevated fuel and raw material costs on to customers. Staff costs also rose modestly as companies adjusted wages to cushion the impact of higher transportation fares on their workers. Job creation slowed to its weakest pace in three months.

Despite the cost pressures, half of all firms surveyed by Stanbic IBTC predicted their output would increase over the next 12 months. Purchasing activity has now risen for 17 consecutive months, with raw material inventories climbing at the fastest pace in five months as businesses build precautionary stock.

Stanbic IBTC's chief economist maintained a 4.22% full-year GDP growth forecast for Nigeria in 2026, up from 3.87% in 2025, driven primarily by the services sector projected to expand 5.64%.