NIGERIANS IDENTIFY ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND FX INSTABILITY AS TOP INFLATION DRIVERS, CBN SURVEY

April expectations survey: 92.1% follow CBN communications; micro businesses feel prices hardest

Energy costs, transportation expenses, and exchange rate instability are the three most significant drivers of inflationary pressure in Nigeria, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria's April 2026 Inflation Expectations Survey, released ahead of this week's MPC meeting.

The survey, covering thousands of households and businesses nationwide, found that respondents ranked energy costs, transportation expenses, exchange rate instability, insecurity, and infrastructure deficits as the five principal causes of price increases. Raw material costs, middlemen activities, and household purchase dynamics were considered less significant.

The findings confirm a pattern evident throughout 2026: the Strait of Hormuz conflict has not just affected global energy markets in the abstract, it has directly elevated fuel and transport costs for Nigerian households and businesses, feeding into a broader cost-of-living squeeze. The Inflation Perception Index stood at 40.5 points in April, with 67.2 per cent of respondents reporting high inflation, up from 56.4 per cent in March.

Despite elevated perceptions of current inflation, respondents expect a gradual easing over the next six months. Businesses show greater forward optimism than households on price trajectory. The survey also found that 92.1 per cent of respondents follow CBN communications on inflation and interest rates, one of the highest monetary policy engagement rates the bank has ever recorded.

For Nigerian SMEs, the survey's findings are a direct cost-mapping exercise. The three top-ranked drivers, energy, transport, and FX, are precisely the costs most within an operator's control to manage through solar investment, logistics optimisation, and dollar hedging strategies.