OIL DROPS 20% FROM 2026 PEAK ON IRAN CEASEFIRE TALKS — ANALYSTS SAY $90–$100 RANGE AHEAD

Brent at $97, WTI at $87 as MoU negotiations progress; Iran strikes Kuwait despite talks; supply disruption persists

Global oil prices retreated almost 20 per cent from their 2026 wartime peak last week, with Brent crude falling to around $97 per barrel and WTI to $87, as markets responded to diplomatic progress between the United States and Iran toward a 60-day ceasefire extension, though analysts cautioned that the underlying supply disruption from the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved.

The decline reflects growing market confidence that the US and Iran have "mostly agreed" on the terms of a memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire, which would provide a temporary reopening of the Hormuz Strait. Brent crude has fallen approximately 20 per cent from its intraday high of $126 reached in late April.

Senior advisors at the International Capital Markets Association said oil prices will likely remain in the range of $90 to $100 per barrel "at least for the next couple of months" until any lasting agreement is formalised and supply routes are confirmed open. "Even if the Strait of Hormuz is opened, I think it's fair to say that opening will only be partial," one senior analyst told CNBC.

The diplomatic progress has not produced a full ceasefire. Iranian forces continued launching ballistic missiles at Kuwait and attack drones toward the Strait during the same week that ceasefire talks progressed. UBS said there is "little evidence" of any short-term improvement in actual vessel traffic or energy flows through the region.

For Nigerian businesses and the broader economy, the oil price decline is a mixed signal. Dangote's import-competing refinery benefits from lower crude input costs. The government's oil export revenues, however, are lower at $97 than at the $110–$126 peak, directly affecting Federation Account allocations and the fiscal headroom for public spending.